EIA预计美国可再生能源发电将超过核能和煤炭

据美国能源情报网1月31日报道，在最新的长期预测中，美国能源情报署(EIA)预测，到2021年，风能和太阳能等可再生能源发电将超过核能和煤炭，2045年将超过天然气。在年度能源展望2020(AEO2020)参考案例中，可再生能源在美国发电结构中的份额从2019年的19%增加到2050年的38%。

可再生能源发电的增长主要归功于风能和太阳能，目前风能和太阳能约占可再生能源发电量的一半。在EIA的AEO2020参考案例中，这些技术占2050年可再生能源总量近80%。在21世纪20年代初生产税抵免到期后，新增的风力发电能力继续处于较低水平。

在AEO2020中，由于整个预测期内光伏成本的下降，太阳能光伏发电容量的增长将持续到2050年。传统的水力发电在绝对值上保持相对不变，并随着其他发电来源的增加而成为发电组合中较小的一部分。

AEO2020中的替代方案研究了可再生能源成本和石油及天然气资源可用性的变化对结果敏感性的影响。即使在石油和天然气供应量高(天然气价格仍低于参考价格)和可再生能源成本高的情况下， 2050年可再生能源发电量也几乎是目前水平的两倍。

可再生能源成本高或低的案例评估了改变成本假设对建造和运营可再生能源发电厂的影响。在所有AEO2020方案中，根据经验随着时间推移将有助于降低资本成本。

在所有AEO2020方案中，美国所有地区的可再生能源发电量都在增长，但首选的技术类型取决于可再生能源的可用性。中西部地区风力发电增长最快，东南部地区太阳能发电增长最快。海上风电仅在东北部沿海和PJM互联等地区.

贾丽 摘译自 美国能源情报网

原文如下：

EIA expects U.S. electricity generation from renewables to soon surpass nuclear and coal

In the latest long-term projections, the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects electricity generation from renewable sources such as wind and solar to surpass nuclear and coal by 2021 and to surpass natural gas in 2045. In the Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020) Reference case, the share of renewables in the U.S. electricity generation mix increases from 19% in 2019 to 38% in 2050.

Most of the growth in renewable electricity generation is attributed to wind and solar, which account for about half of renewable generation today. In EIA’s AEO2020 Reference case, these technologies account for nearly 80% of the renewable total in 2050. New wind capacity additions continue at much lower levels after production tax credits expire in the early 2020s.

In AEO2020, growth in solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity continues through 2050 for both utility-scale and small-scale applications because of declining PV costs throughout the projection period. Conventional hydroelectric generation remains relatively unchanged in absolute terms and becomes a smaller portion of the generation mix as other sources of electricity generation increase.

Alternative scenarios in AEO2020 examine the sensitivity of results to changes in the costs of renewables and the availability of oil and natural gas resources. Even in the High Oil and Gas Supply (where natural gas prices remain lower than in the Reference case) and High Renewables Cost cases, renewable generation nearly doubles from current levels by 2050.

The High and Low Renewables Cost cases evaluate the effects of changing cost assumptions for constructing and operating renewable energy power plants. In all AEO2020 scenarios, experience-based factors (such as learning-by-doing) contribute to lower capital costs over time.

Renewable generation grows in all regions of the United States in all AEO2020 scenarios, but the preferred technology type depends on the availability of renewable energy resources. Wind-powered generation grows the most in the West and Mid-Continent regions, and solar-powered generation grows the most in the Southeast. Offshore wind is only built off the coast of the Northeast and the PJM Interconnection.