2011年4月刊 核能危机的反思——太阳能产业最好的机遇？

核能危机的反思——太阳能产业最好的机遇？

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2011年04月杂志电子版下载地址：

Solarbe光伏论坛
http://bbs.solarbe.com/viewthread.php?tid=13454

21世纪新能源网
http://www.ne21.com/down/show-1420.html

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全球第四大太阳能市场

一直以来， 日本政府的大力扶 持使得日本光伏市场蓬勃发展，日本 已经发展成为全球最大的光伏市场之 一，同时也算是全球最大的太阳能电 池制造商。日本对光伏产业的鼓励不 仅来自国家政策、法律措施，还有由 政府制定的完善的发展体系。日本政 府着重于技术研发、示范工程、实证 研究、法律法规以及光伏系统发展的 宣传措施。由经济、贸易和产业部和 环境部共同努力，使得日本光伏产业 的发展取得瞩目的成绩。经济、贸易 和产业部主要负责推动光伏系统的技 术发展以降低成本并加速光伏技术的 推广。

太阳能产业在日本有着悠久的历 史，早在 1994年的时候日本政府就 出台了对屋顶太阳能安装系统的资金 补贴，直到2004年日本成为全球最大 的光伏市场。2004年以后，政府几乎 取消了所有的补贴使得太阳能产业的 发展速度逐渐放缓。需 求巨大的国内市场使得 日本本土企业如夏普、 三菱、京瓷、松下以及 三洋等发展成为世界级 的太阳能电池制造商。 2009年以来，日本政府 又重新开始实施慷慨的 太阳能电价补贴政策以 大力推动该国的可能生 能源发展。这使得2010 年日本成为仅次于德国、意大利、美 国之后的第四大光伏市场，并且看起 来在未来这个势头还将保持下去。日 本光伏安装成本相对较低，越来越接 近电网平价水平。同时，风能发展缺 乏使得太阳能成为更有吸引力的可再 生能源选择。虽然日本几乎没有大型 的光伏安装系统，但是屋顶太阳能系 统的安装量非常可观。

多晶硅供应受到影响

日本生产的太阳能电池板和多晶 硅大部分在日本国内市场出售，其中 一部分多晶硅销往海外。这次地震造 成三洋、松下、夏普停产。虽然设备 损坏情况并不严重，但基础设施受到 一定影响。至少需要两到三个月的时 间来修复电网，甚至需要更长的时间 来修复道路以及北部的口岸。

巴克莱资本的分析师Vishal Shah 表示，此次在日本发生的地震将为太 阳能产业带来一系列强烈的余震，尽 管短期内可能削弱供需前景，但将改 善太阳能领域长期的政策前景。巴克莱预计欧洲目前不会立即改变光伏发 展政策。但长期来看，美国、日本、 中国以及其他几个亚洲国家可能会考 虑更多地使用风能和太阳能等清洁发 电技术。短期内，Shah预计此次地震 对整个太阳能供应链都会产生潜在的 负面影响。对整个的日本经济也将有 一段时间的影响，可能导致光伏组件 出货量减少以及短期定价出现问题。 Piper Jaffray的分析师Ahmar Zaman 早些时候表示，2011年日本的需求达 2GW，在地震后，Piper Jaggray预测 这一数字将减少到1GW。

市场研究公司DisplaySearch对 日本光伏产业的破坏情况做出了评 估。简单说来，该公司认为除了工厂 设在福岛的多晶硅制造商M.Setek受 到重创，其他的制造商并未受到太大 影响。而M.Setek只是日本第三大生 产商，排在前两位的是位于日本西部 和中部的Tokoyuma和三菱，因此并 未遭受重大损失。同样，位于福岛的 M.Setek的硅片工厂也受到影响。

根据彭博新能源财经提供的数 据显示，日本的多晶硅产量占世界的 10%左右，主要用于太阳能电池板和 半导体。在日本西部的太阳能电池和 组件厂毫发无损。普华永道可再生能 源部的负责人Daniel Guttmann表示， “由于市场上有足够的多晶硅供应， 所以这种规模的短期缺货现象不会对 市场造成太大影响。这可能会导致多 晶硅价格在过去数月持续上升之后继 续保持上涨。”日本以外的多晶硅制 造商，如瓦克化学股份有限公司以及 MEMC电子材料公司的股价自地震之 后就一直上涨。

笔者就此次地震的受灾情况等 问题采访了京瓷和友达，京瓷公司相 关负责人表示，因为京瓷在日本的太 阳能电池工厂在日本的滋贺县和三重 县，离震源较远，均未受到直接影 响。截止3月22日17点，京瓷集团全 体员工确认平安。在生产方面，位于 东北地区的京瓷株式会社福岛棚仓工 厂仅有部分建筑和设备轻度受损。该 工厂生产的是PHS终端和基站，并已 于3月15日恢复部分生产。在生产晶体 元器件方面，山形县东根市的京瓷金 石山形株式会社出现了部分建筑和设 备轻度受损的局面，但该工厂已于3月 22日恢复部分生产。而另一家位于东 京都八王子市的京瓷金石赫兹株式会 社，在震后则一切运行正常。最后， 在光学原件方面，位于东京都青梅市 的两大工厂——京瓷光学株式会社千 濑工厂和京瓷光学技术株式会社总社 工厂，均在3月16日恢复生产。

而友达相关负责人则表示，针对日本大地震，友达已在台湾总公司及日本子公司成立紧急应变中心。其日 本子公司 M.Setek多 晶硅生产基 地位于日本 福岛县相马 市，就目前 了解及掌握 的状况，人 员及厂房设 备等结构体 均安全，初 步并无重大 损害，未受 到地震及海啸冲击。至于厂区复工时 间则将视当地公共设施如水、电、瓦 斯等供应的恢复状况而定，目前仍无 法预期。M.Setek 2010年第四季营收 约占友达合并营收的0.3%。

核能危机的反思，太阳能产业 最好的机遇？

2008年的数据显示，世界上5.8% 的能源由核能提供。而光伏发电、光 热、风能以及地热等可再生能源的总 和只占全球能源供应的0.7%。在经 历了日本福岛核电站的危机之后，许 多国家的政府表示应该大力发展清洁 能源，为清洁能源创造更多的就业机 会，使我们的能源供应更加安全。

德国默克尔政府将延长德国核电 站使用寿命的申请搁置三个月，待安 全调查结果出来之后再做决定。之后 又宣布关闭七座1980年前建成使用 的核电站。在一份声明中，默克尔表 示，核电是一种通往可再 生能源的过渡技术，该言 论可能暗示德国政府将加 快可再生能源的发展速 度，加快寻找代替核能的 可再生能源。瑞士政府也 提出了搁置核电站更换的 申请，并下令对现有的设 施进行安全检查。同时， 中国政府也表示将全面审 查在建的核电站并严格审批申请建设 的核电站。

日本核灾难的直接后果就是使太 阳能产业有机会成为能源解决方案的 一部分。而太阳能产品的需求增长将 主要集中在这两部分：首先，住宅电 力安全的需求将增加。这将使家用节 能产品和家用发电产品的需求激增， 太阳能发电装置的需求将明显上涨。 其次，随着日本重建其公用事业规模 的电力系统，太阳能发电系统将再次 成为受益者。

日本重建公用事业规模的电力系 统所带来的问题和由此产生的机会都 是巨大的。当然，太阳能本身不可能 成为一个全方位的解决方案。但由于 重建计划的必要规模，即使太阳能只 有机会对新的电力需求提供一小部分 的帮助，也将对全球太阳能产业的总 需求做出极大的贡献。

关于日本未来能源发展的争论才 刚刚开始。日本对核能的严重依赖以 及本国自身能源的匮乏都将使该国的 目光投向可再生资源，而太阳能将会 是最主要的受益者。

灾后重建

自2009年1月起恢复了面向家庭 用途的补助制度之后，日本太阳能光 伏市场快速增长。就在地震发生的 几天前，SunPower宣布与东芝签署 48MW的合约，为东芝在日本的太阳 能业务提供住宅用太阳能电池板。但 该公司拒绝对SunPower在日本灾后重 建中扮演的角色进行评价。中国的厂商当然也不会错过这块肥肉。尚德、 晶澳、英利、阿特斯等公司都先后进 军日本市场。由于日本光伏企业占据 地理优势以及日本民众对民族品牌的 认同感，日本光伏企业在该国光伏市 场上的份额处于绝对优势，但中国厂 商进军日本市场的步伐在不断加快。

英利新能源相关负责人对笔者表 示，由于日本政府09年才重新对家 用太阳能系统发放补贴，所以英利也 是近两年才进入日本市场。屋顶项目 占日本光伏系统的80%，所以终端 消费者尤为重要。英利面临的最大挑 战就是让消费者认识和了解英利这个 品牌，通过赞助世界杯和拜仁慕尼黑 球队等举措，让日本消费者对英利有 了深刻的印象。同时，寻找日本本土 的合作伙伴以及计划设立分公司，让 英利对打开日本市场充满信心。对于 此次日本地震对光伏产业所产生的机 遇，该负责人表示，英利早就对日本 市场有着长远的发展计划，并不会受 此次地震影响。 目前在欧洲光伏市场中国企业占 据60%-70%的市场份额，而剩下的 被日本企业所占据，日本企业在与中 国光伏企业的较量中已经处于劣势地 位，而这次地震将会使得日本企业丧 失更多的市场份额，同时造就了中国 光伏企业的巨大机遇，怎样抓住这个 机遇，那就要看中国的光伏巨头们如 何八仙过海各显神通了。

附录：日本著名的光伏企业

夏普

夏普公司以其电子产品和全球最 高的太阳能组件收入闻名于世。虽然 夏普的晶硅电池组件的质量被认为是 最好的，但与来自中国大陆和台湾的 竞争对手相比没有成本优势。

三洋

尽管在电子市场的竞争中，三洋 不低其本土的竞争对手索尼和夏普， 但其在锂电池和太阳能电池制造中拥 有最尖端的技术。其HIT技术型太阳能 电池板拥有最高的品质的转化率。

松下

在收购三洋之后， 松下改变战 略成为一个绿色产品销售的竞争者。 松下是世界上最大的等离子电视生产 商，计划为发展绿色建筑投资10亿 美元。松下把自身的绿色优势与三洋 公司结合推出一种完整的环保家居产 品，包括太阳能、LED照明和能量存 储等设施。

京瓷

京瓷是日本第二大太阳能电池板 生产公司，也是最早开始研究太阳能 电池的公司，早在1975年就研制成功 多晶硅太阳能电池。

三菱

三菱也是日本老牌的太阳能公 司，拥有太阳能组件和系统业务。该公司以其高品质的太阳能电池板闻名，并以已进军美国市场。但由于市 场扩张的野心不够而导致份额流失。

三井

在收购了Sunwize公司以后，三井在美国也拥有了自己的太阳能系统业务。

东芝

东芝以其全球领先的核电设备和 电子产品闻名于世，现在也决定发展 太阳能EPC业务。这项发展策略与其 他全球性企业集团进军太阳能产业的 领域不同。像韩国的三星、LG、韩华 和现代等都是进军晶体硅组件市场。 而东芝则想要利用其在太阳能EPC业 务的经验进军智能电网业务领域。

本田

日本的汽车巨头本田也加入了太阳能市场的竞争，销售基于CIGS技术 的薄膜电池组件。

World's fourth largest solar market

Government support driving Japan’s photovoltaic market, Japan has emerged as one of the largest markets of solar PV installed capacity in the world, it is also counted among the world’s largest manufacturers of solar cells. The encouragement to PV industry in Japan has stemmed from a range of national strategies, legal measures, and frameworks brought in by the government. The Japanese government has given more stress on R&D, model projects, demonstrative researches, laws & regulations, and dissemination measures for the deployment of PV systems. Efforts made by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of the Environment yielded positive results in the form of impressive expansion of PV industry. The METI promotes technological development of PV systems to reduce cost and accelerate the introduction of PV technology.

Solar Energy in Japan has a long future dating back to 1994 when the government introduced capital subsidies to boost solar energy installations on rooftops. Till 2004, Japan was the largest solar market in the world after which it was overtaken by Germany. After 2004, the growth in the solar industry tapered off as the government reduced the subsidies for solar panels to almost zero. The huge domestic market gave rise to Japanese companies like Sharp, Mitsubishi, Kyocera, Panasonic-Sanyo become top solar panel producers in the world. Since the 2009, the Japanese government has again started giving generous solar subsidies and feed in tariff to boost the renewable energy production in the country which remains far off targets. This has led Japan to become the top non-European market after USA and the growth seems set to continue in the future as well. Japan has relatively low installations costs and is much nearer to grid parity. Also lack of wind energy makes solar energy more attractive as a renewable energy choice. While large scale solar installations in Japan are almost absent, there remain large numbers of rooftop solar installations.

Polysilicon supply disrupted

Most of solar panels and polysilicon which produced in Japan are sold in domestic markets, some polysilicon is shipped overseas. The earthquake caused shutdown of production from Sanyo, Panasonic and Sharp. Some facilities are not severely damaged, but what impacts the industry is the infrastructure. It is believed that at least 2-3 months will be needed to repair the power grid. It will even take longer to repair the roads and ports in the northern coast.Over the course of the last few days, Prime Minister Naoto Kan has for the first time discussed both the need to rebuild Japan from scratch and the national resolve required to achieve this. Clearly, the choices to be made in the formulation of a reconstruction plan will have great economic implications. In particular, the choices to be made by Japan in terms of the reconstruction of its power generation capacity will not be the least of these. Barclays analyst Vishal Shah says that the major earthquake in Japan with serious aftershocks, improves the longer term policy outlook for the renewable solar energy sector even though it weakens the near term supply/demand outlook. Barclays does not anticipate any immediate change in policy developments in Europe. Longer term, however, the US, Japan, China and several other Asian countries will consider greater use of clean generation technologies (wind, solar) over nuclear power. In the near term, Shah sees some supply disruptions, potentially negatively impacting fundamentals across the solar supply chain. The entire Japanese economy will be impacted for a while, which may cause some minor shipment and short-term pricing issues for PV components. Piper Jaffray analyst Ahmar Zaman says that Japan accounts for 2GW of expected 2011 demand, Piper is cutting its estimate to 1GW following the earthquake disaster.

Market research firm DisplaySearch offers its assessment of the impact on the photovoltaic industry of the devastation in Japan. In brief, the firm sees little impact to manufacturing, outside of the the facilities of polysilicon producer M.Setek, whose Soma Fukushima factory is in the midst of the disaster and has been hit hard. But M.Setek is only the third largest producer: Tokoyuma and Mitsubishi, the numbers one and two, have facilities in the West of Japan and in central Japan, and are therefore have not suffered significant damage. Again, M.Setek’s wafer production in Fukushima is affected. The country produces about 10 percent of the world’s polysilicon, wh i c h i s u s e d t o fabricate solar panels and semiconductors, a c c o r d i n g t o B l o o m b e r g N e w Energy Finance. Solar cell and module plants in western Japan were unscathed. “A shortt e rm di s rupt ion of this size should not have much effect in the market as there is enough polysilicon out the r e , ” Dani e l Guttmann, director of renewable at the consulting firm PwC, said. “It could lead to an upward tick in polysilicon prices, which have risen in the past few months.” Shares of non-Japanese polysilicon makers such as Wacker Chemie AG and MEMC Electric Materials Inc. have gained since the quake following reports of damage to Japanese manufacturers and rolling power outages.

I had a interview with Kyocera and AUO about the earthquake disaster situation, the relevant person of Kyocera said that Kyocera’s solar cell plants are far from the epicenter, were not affected directly. By March 22, all the staff of Kyocera confirmed safe. In terms of production，only part of the factory which in the northeast of Japan was slightly damaged, and was resumed on March 15.

The relevant person of AUO said that its head office in Taiwan and the subsidiary in Japan have already set up an emergency center. Its Japanese subsidiary M.Setek’s polysilicon production base is located in Soma City, Fukushima Prefecture, to the current situation, staff and equipments are all safe, no significant damage. The time for resume will depend on the public facilities such as water, electricity and gas, it is still unpredictable now. M.Setek’s fourth quarter’s revenue in 2010 accounted 0.3% of the consolidated revenues of AUO.

Nuclear crisis introspection, the best opportunity for solar industry?

Worldwide, 5.8 percent of energy was produced by nuclear power in 2008’s figures. Solar photovoltaic, solar thermal, wind, and geothermal all lump together at 0.7 percent of global energy supply. After Fukushima nuclear power plant crisis, lots of counties said that they should develop clean energy, and create more job opportunities for clean energy, to make our energy supply more safe and secure.

Chancellor Angela Merkel put government plans to prolong the lifespan of Germany’s nuclear power plants on hold for three months pending the outcome of an inquiry into reactor safety. The Swiss government has put application procedures for the replacement of nuclear power stations on hold and ordered safety inspections of existing facilities to be brought forward. Later, announced to close seven nuclear power plants which were built before 1980. In a statement, Merkel said that the nuclear power is a transitional technology. Meanwhile, the Chinese government said it will fully review the nuclear power plants which under constructions.

In the immediate aftermath of the nuclear disaster in Japan, that the solar industry would likely have the opportunity to be part of the solution. There are obviously likely to be two main sources of this increased demand for solar product going forward: First, an increased desire for residential power security. This will likely produce a burst of demand for both energy efficiency products for the home and home power generation products. Demand for solar installations will likely to a significant part of this. Second, as Japan rebuilds its utility-scale generation capacity, a number of factors suggest that solar will again be a beneficiary.

The scale of the problem and resultant opportunity is immense. Of course, solar by itself cannot possibly offer an allencompassing solution. With a necessary reconstruction program of the size outlined below, even if solar only has the opportunity to provide a small percentage of the necessary new capacity it will still represent an extremely significant contribution to the total level of global demand facing the solar industry.

The debate over Japan's energy future is only just beginning. However, both Japan's heavy reliance on nuclear and its lack of domestic sources of hydrocarbons suggest that the country will look toward renewable and solar is set to be a main beneficiary.

Reconstruction

Since the Japanese government resume the subsidies for residential solar system, the Japanese solar market grow rapidly. Just days before the disaster, SunPower announced a new 48- megawatt contract with Toshiba to supply the company with solar panels for its residential solar business in Japan. But the company declined to comment on what the company’s role may be in rebuilding Japan. Chinese enterprises will certainly not miss the big cake. Suntech, JA Solar, Yingli and Canadian Solar all enter the Japanese market. Japanese PV enterprises have the geographical advantages plus the national brand identity, Japanese PV enterprises have the absolute advantages in market share, but Chinese enterprises are accelerating the steps.

The relevant person of Yingli New Energy said that the Japanese government resumes the subsidies for residential solar systems in 2009, so Yingli entered Japanese market two years before. In Japan, the roof-top projects accounted for 80% of PV systems, so the end consumer is particularly important. The biggest challenge for Yingli is to make the Japanese consumer know and aware about Yingli, Through becomes the sponsors of the FIFA World Cup and Bayern Munich, make Japanese consumers have a deep impression for Yingli. Also, looking for local partners and plans to set up branches in Japan make Yingli has the confidence to open up Japanese market. About the opportunities for the solar industry after the crisis, the relevant person said that Yingli has a long-term development plan for Japanese market and will not be affected by the earthquake.

Currently, Chinese enterprises account 60-70% of market share in European photovoltaic market, while the rest are occupied by Japanese enterprises, compete with Chinese PV enterprises, Japanese enterprises are already in the inferior position, and the earthquake will make them lose more market share, while create big opportunities for Chinese PV enterprises, how to seize the opportunities, let us wait and see how these PV giants show their prowess.

Appendix: Top Japanese Solar Companies

Sharp

Sharp, known more for its Electronics Products and also the world’s No 1 Company in terms Solar Module Revenues. Though the quality of Sharp’s crystalline silicon modules is considered much better, the cost difference has become too big in a rapidly commoditizing industry.

Sanyo

Sanyo has never been as successful in the hyper competitive electronics market as other Japanese companies like Sony or Sharp. However its lithium batteries and solar panels possess cutting edge technology. Its solar panels with proprietary HIT technology rival the best in terms of efficiency and quality.

Panasonic

Panasonic after acquiring Sanyo has completely changed its strategy to become a major Green Player targeting a Major Percentage of Sales in the future to come from Green Products. Panasonic which is the world’s biggest Plasma TV producer is going to spend $1 Billion on Green Building investments. Panasonic will combine its Green Strengths with Sanyo’s to sell a complete Eco-Friendly Home complete with Solar Power, LED Lighting and Energy Storage and Efficiency capabilities.

Kyocera

Kyocera is Japan’s second largest solar panel producing company. In 1975, Kyocera implemented a development effort that led to the world's first mass-production technologies for multicrystalline silicon solar cells.

Mitsubishi

Mistubishi is another old time Japanese solar company which has a low profile solar module and system business. The company is known for its high quality panels and has a decent presence in USA and Japan. However like Kyocera it has not been aggressive enough leading to loss in market share.

Mitsui

Mitsui owns a solar system business in the US after acquiring Sunwize.

Toshiba

Toshiba the Japanese Giant known for its Global Leadership in Nuclear Power Equipment and Electronics has decided to become a big player in the Solar EPC business. This strategy is quite different from the other global conglomerates entering the Solar Energy Field. South Korean Players like Samsung, LG, Hanwha and Hyundai are all building Crystalline Silicon Modules. Toshiba wants to enter the Smart Grid business by leveraging its experiences of the Solar EPC business.

Honda

Honda, the Japanese auto giant has also joined the Solar Energy Race by selling Thin Film Modules based on CIGs technology.

文章作者：索比太阳能